Predictions can be dangerous because they are so often wrong. But they can’t be regarded as mere ego trips or vanity plays. They function as a fundamental component of the human project. For example, predictions are an integral part of the scientific process. No new theory can be tested without a few guesses about future outcomes.
So …… what does the political circle tell us about potential developments in America’s future?
One method of pursuing predictions is to observe existing trends and extrapolate them forward in time. Here’s an unnoticed trend: each month – for many months – prominent liberals have been moving from the upper left quadrant to the lower left …… a shift that is quickening.
This development acquires clarity if we look far enough backward in time. Twenty years ago, prescient but often-ignored voices, like James Howard Kunstler and Charles Hugh Smith arrived on the barren frontier of the low circle. Few recognized their new positions. There was no common framework within which those pioneers could be identified.
Even as recently as a few months ago, a Joe Rogan or a Glenn Greenwald was misidentified as they chose to stake out territory in the lower left quadrant. How often did we see them falsely labeled as “newly-converted right-wingers”? It is becoming clear that their values haven’t changed, while their orientation toward power has.
The trend has been accelerating. Throughout 2021, mainstream, conventional liberals began to enter the flow …… Dave Chapelle and Bill Maher being two of the most recent. What was once a trickle is now becoming a torrent.
Will we witness defectors from CNN and MSNBC before long? The trend says we will.
Left-leaning figures are moving lower on the circle in reaction to the overreaches of centralism, led by the former object of their affections: the Democratic Party. Critical race theory, onerous covid mandates, free speech violations, woke ideology, and excessive climate alarmism have now driven a wedge between the centralizing and citizen-empowering wings of the liberal movement.
The shift of progressives southward on the circle is not the only significant national development, however. A parallel trend has been occurring in the country’s economic life. Inflation is accelerating, supply lines are disrupting, and formerly predictable components of the business world, like labor supply and demand, have now become unmanageable. This too portends structural changes on the horizon.
These two trends are not unlinked. They’re like two massive, slow-moving rivers meandering just upstream of a major confluence. It is now becoming likely that their commingling (with the inevitable, associated turbulence) will occur just as the 2024 presidential election comes into view.
The satellite perspective of that election will feature a impetus that has been building since the Clinton Administration: disillusionment with the credentialed class. This dissatisfaction with deep state actors, overconfident bureaucrats, cynical politicians, and tone deaf CEOs will reach a critical threshold. It will morph into a backlash against what remains of the twentieth century’s status quo.
So, the scene is set for the election of 2024. Both parties will present mainstream political figures for approval. Voters will reject them. Instead, a new figure will emerge. Perhaps even competing new figures.
As usual, mainstream propaganda institutions will attempt to sully the new candidate(s). But their waning influence will have little impact this time around. Media gambits will be largely ignored by voters.
The new candidate will be notable in their support of the citizen over the combination of corporations and bureaucratic agencies. The will feel authentic, human, and uninhibited. They’ll speak in the moment, from conviction rather than calculation …… a refreshing and scary change from recent generations’ scripted politicians.
Today, leading intellectual lights – both left and right – believe that the Biden Administration’s gaffes will lead to a resurgence of Donald Trump, or – in the words of Glenn Greenwald – “a smarter, more stable version of Trump.” But this is unlikely.
The next successful candidate will come from the lower left quadrant. They’ll have a message that resonates strongly with the lower right quadrant. Their approach will be treated cautiously by the citizen-oriented conservatives …… at first. By election day 2024, however, the loyalty of free rights conservatives to the new candidate will be almost as intense as the loyalty of the lower left figures who initially gave rise to that candidate.
The result will be a landslide victory for the newcomer.
Who is this person? It’s likely that they’ll be a woman, an LGBT, a minority …… possibly all three. Yet their core message will be a clear statement about the dangers of woke culture, with its links to centralized power.
Will it be Tulsi Gabbard? She is as close as one could envision in the current moment. But she’ll likely be eclipsed by someone more Gandhi-esque. Someone less political. The winner will be someone who is less interested in winning the position, and more interested in fixing the country.
We can’t predict which actual figure will emerge because they likely aren’t in the public spotlight yet. Or at least, like 2016, no one will think of them as someone who could handle the oval office.
When they do sit down behind the desk in that room, they will attempt to systematically dismantle the corporate and bureaucratic edifice that has been constructed around the presidency over the past one hundred and sixty years.
And the ensuing reaction from the deep state will make the Trump years look like a middle school scrimmage.
The Great Conflation 